Table 6
Table 6: Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Ivan, 9-14 August 2004.
Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecasts are shown in bold-face type. Verification includes the depression stage.
Forecast Technique | Period (hours) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 72 | 96 | 120 | |
CLP5 | 25 (62) | 51 (60) | 86 (58) | 121 (55) | 175 (51) | 229 (47) | 296 (44) |
GFNI | 27 (57) | 57 (55) | 95 (55) | 134 (53) | 219 (49) | 325 (45) | 443 (41) |
GFDI | 28 (60) | 52 (58) | 77 (57) | 94 (55) | 147 (51) | 204 (47) | 261 (43) |
GFDL | 29 (61) | 52 (59) | 76 (57) | 92 (56) | 136 (52) | 195 (48) | 252 (44) |
GFDN | 29 (56) | 51 (54) | 79 (53) | 118 (53) | 198 (49) | 298 (45) | 412 (41) |
GFSI | 29 (60) | 55 (58) | 79 (57) | 100 (55) | 154 (51) | 212 (47) | 285 (43) |
GFSO | 32 (63) | 56 (61) | 80 (58) | 99 (56) | 147 (52) | 198 (48) | 268 (43) |
AEMI | 27 (60) | 49 (58) | 73 (57) | 95 (55) | 151 (51) | 203 (47) | 252 (43) |
NGPI | 26 (59) | 54 (57) | 86 (56) | 119 (54) | 200 (50) | 304 (46) | 449 (42) |
NGPS | 29 (61) | 52 (59) | 82 (56) | 109 (54) | 186 (50) | 278 (46) | 413 (42) |
UKMI | 24 (58) | 47 (56) | 72 (55) | 92 (53) | 147 (49) | 214 (45) | 286 (41) |
UKM | 26 (30) | 44 (29) | 66 (28) | 87 (28) | 133 (26) | 189 (24) | 279 (22) |
A98E | 27 (61) | 43 (59) | 72 (57) | 103 (55) | 179 (51) | 248 (47) | 349 (44) |
A9UK | 27 (28) | 43 (27) | 71 (26) | 95 (25) | 149 (23) |
|
|
BAMD | 31 (61) | 54 (59) | 78 (57) | 96 (55) | 147 (51) | 219 (47) | 300 (44) |
BAMM | 32 (61) | 53 (59) | 86 (57) | 116 (55) | 172 (51) | 214 (47) | 283 (44) |
BAMS | 48 (61) | 93 (59) | 142 (57) | 179 (55) | 236 (51) | 251 (47) | 286 (44) |
CONU | 22 (60) | 47 (58) | 74 (57) | 97 (55) | 154 (51) | 224 (47) | 307 (43) |
GUNA | 22 (58) | 45 (56) | 71 (55) | 92 (53) | 147 (49) | 213 (45) | 289 (41) |
FSSE | 21 (53) | 38 (51) | 58 (51) | 81 (51) | 126 (47) | 171 (43) | 199 (38) |
OFCL | 24 (63) | 47 (61) | 79 (59) | 108 (56) | 161 (52) | 222 (48) | 289 (44) |
NHC Official, 1994 - 2003 mean (number of cases) | 44 (3172) | 78 (2894) | 112 (2636) | 146 (2368) | 217 (1929) | 248 (421) | 319 (341) |